Scenarios

Directions: Follow along with the story and answer the questions when asked. The story is fictitious and the consequences of your choices are purely hypothetical and created by the author. In a real life situation, additional options would have been available. The purpose of the training is to insight thought and discussion on some of the different aspects of Aeronautical Decision Making. Enjoy!

Scenario:

Today you're flying a rented Piper Arrow (VFR only) from Jamestown NY (JHW) to Teterboro NJ (TEB) for a Job Interview. You've been waiting for this position to become available for a long time, and it's finally happened. Tomorrow, you have to be in early for a very important meeting at your current job, so to make this happen, you're going to fly. Flying will put you back in town at a reasonable time tonight, so that you can get plenty of rest for your meeting. The Interview today is at 2:00 pm; you decide to leave at 10:00 am so you'll have plenty of time to complete the one hour and forty minute flight and get to the Interview.

Trip distance: 246 nm

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Weather is pretty decent today. Ceilings are running around six to seven thousand feet and visibilities are eight to ten miles. A cold front is off to the west, with no precipitation showing on the radar. It's April and temperatures are running in the sixties on the surface and in the forties at your altitude. You have a thirty-knot tailwind that should make your arrival ahead of schedule.

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It's a beautiful flight into Teterboro. Teterboro is right next to Manhattan, and the view is spectacular. Everything went according to plan. Everything worked fine on the aircraft except the DG, which seemed to precess quite a bit. You had to continually reset it from the mag compass. But navigation really was no problem, since you were able to follow I-80 almost all the way. This easy and enjoyable flight makes up for the lousy night's sleep you got last night worrying about this interview.

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You make it to the interview with time to spare. But the person you were going to see is backed up, and your interview probably won't start until 3:00 pm. At 3:30 pm you start on what turns out to be a very long and difficult interview. By the time it's over you're not sure if you've got the job or if you even want it. It's almost 6:00 pm and you need to get back.

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It looks like part of your return trip is now going to be a night flight. It's been several months since your last night flight. Your night currency has run out, but then it's not required since you're not carrying passengers. The weather around Teterboro is about the same as it was when you arrived, but back home in Jamestown, the ceilings have come down from the forecast. Jamestown, NY is now 4600 overcast with visibilities seven miles in light rain.

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You have full fuel, which should give you almost three and a half hours of flying. Flight time should be around two hours and twenty minutes. You've checked that all required night flight items are in the aircraft, including a flashlight with fresh batteries. You do a preflight and the aircraft looks great. You're pretty confident you can do this flight just fine, but you're just a tad nervous. You've been nervous about flights before, and everything has always turned out fine. Besides, staying here would mean several hundred dollars for a hotel, ramp fees, and keeping the aircraft another day. Not to mention missing the meeting in the morning.

You decide to:
Tie down the aircraft and head for a hotel. Your done for the day.

At least takeoff, head west and see how it looks. Weather around here is fine, and if need be, you can stop along the way.

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A very difficult choice to make, but certainly the best. In aviation, so many of the factors that effect our decisions have nothing to do with airplanes. This is true for all types of aircraft and all types of flying. In this case, you already have quite a few links in the error chain:

• Fatigue
• Stress
• Out of night currency
• Aircraft equipment problem (DG)
• High density airspace
• Deteriorating weather
• Nighttime and fatigue can also bring on early onset of hypoxia

The other issues (missing the meeting and additional expenses) will be forgotten in a very short time. But the alternative could have been something much worse.

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The departure is uneventful, and it's a beautiful night. You're talking to New York center until they can get you out of the class B airspace, and they are taking very good care of you. Almost over Wilkes Barre, PA you call the Flight Service station to check on an MOA that's up ahead. Flight Service informs you that the Duke MOA has just gone hot and they suggest a course over Elmira VOR (ULY) to avoid this airspace. You look up Elmira VOR and head direct. A quick check of the numbers shows this will probably add only 10 to 15 minutes to the flight. You won't be following a highway, but you've tuned and identified Wilkes Barre VOR and you can fly a radial out of Wilkes Barre until receiving Elmira, so it should be no problem.
You decide:
Start looking for a good airport to land at for the night, maybe right here at Wilkes Barre, PA

Keep on flying. Everything is still going just fine, and you can always stop later if needed.

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An OK choice. There will be added risk landing at an unfamiliar airport at night without a lot of time to review airport diagrams and the like. You may or may not have time to check notams. Do ask for help from ATC, and ensure that you can get the current weather for the airport.

Very little has changed since your departure. The time delay and course change are all common occurrences in aviation, and should have been anticipated. Before you ever took off the following links were already in the error chain:

• Fatigue
• Stress
• Out of night currency
• Aircraft equipment problem (DG)
• High density airspace
• Deteriorating weather
• Nighttime and fatigue can also bring on early onset of hypoxia

It might have been wiser to have never started this flight. The other issues (missing the meeting and additional expenses) will be forgotten in a very short time. But the alternative could have been something much worse.

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You cross Wilkes Barre VOR and make the turn on the outbound radial. In about 40 miles you should be able to pick up the Elmira VOR, and when you get to Elmira, you're only 100 miles from home. You've been in-route for one hour and ten minutes and it looks like one hour and twenty minutes to go, at present ground speed. Now you're close enough to receive Elmira VOR, and cruising at 6500 feet msl you notice that the ceilings look like they are getting lower. A quick check with the local flight service station confirms your suspicion. Ceilings in the area are ranging anywhere from 4000 to 5000 feet agl. Your destination airport is now reporting 3600 overcast with 5 miles and light rain.

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You descend to 4500 feet msl to stay beneath the cloud bases and check the charts for obstruction clearance; no problem. By descending to 4500 feet you just gained a few knots of ground speed, but it is quite a bit bumpier. In addition, your VOR reception is now less than perfect, because of your lower altitude and the hills in the area. But you know right where you're at and you can now see the lights on Elmira Regional up ahead. You call Elmira control tower to transition though their class D airspace (thinking you might have to descend even lower due to the ceilings). Elmira control tower clears you over the top of the airport. As you approach the airport, the wide, well-lit runways look very inviting.
You decide:
Take advantage of this opportunity and land

Continue on. So far everything is working out, and in one hour and thirty minutes you'll be home sleeping in your own bed.

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It's been a long day and at this point it was probably the correct decision to land. You probably should have considered not starting this flight. Before you ever left the ground the following links were already in the error chain:

• Fatigue
• Stress
• Out of night currency
• Aircraft equipment problem (DG)
• High density airspace
• Deteriorating weather
• Nighttime and fatigue can also bring on early onset of hypoxia

At this point you could also add: Possibility of being lost (VOR signal and DG precess with a bouncing mag compass), as well as Lowering ceiling and possibility of inadvertently entering VMC conditions. The other issues (missing the meeting and additional expenses) will be forgotten in a very short time. But the alternative could have been something much worse. In aviation, so many of the factors that effect our decisions have nothing to do with airplanes.

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You make your last turn over the Elmira VOR and turn directly toward Jamestown. With the lights of Elmira fading behind you, you set your sights on home. The effects of little sleep and this long stressful day are starting to wear on you. This new heading puts you directly into a headwind, and your ground speed is slower than earlier calculated. At this rate it could still be over one hour to home.

Thirty minutes later, you can almost taste home when you start to notice the reflection of your nav lights in the clouds. The ceilings must really be getting closer. The charts show some of the maximum elevation figures in this area to be 3000 feet msl. If you are south of course at all, the maximum elevation figures are 3300 feet msl. Descending does not seem like a good idea, but you go ahead and descend to 4000 feet just to keep from going IFR.

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You double-check your position by tuning in the Wellsville VOR. You're just a few miles from the VOR but you are indeed south of course. Obstructions could be close, and you are also right on the edge now of the Duke MOA. You make the course correction and continue on. Using the Wellsville VOR remote, you contact Buffalo radio for a weather check. Buffalo radio informs you that Jamestown's latest weather is 2400 overcast and 4 miles with light rain. That's not good in the hilly country at night. As you get closer to home, you again notice the strobes bouncing off the clouds and you are again forced to descend. Now at 3200 msl, you are just below the clouds and, according to your map, just 700 feet above some of the hills in the area.

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You arrive at home, and it feels good to be on the ground. Your flight ended up being almost 3 hours with all the deviations and extra wind. You burned up considerably more fuel than planned because of the extra time and the poor fuel economy at lower altitudes with poor leaning. Looks like 30 minutes of fuel in the tanks. There are many pilots who can recount a story similar to this one, but most of these end with a newspaper article instead of a landing.

Before this flight ever departed the error chain already had the following links:

• Fatigue
• Stress
• Out of night currency
• Aircraft equipment problem (DG)
• High density airspace
• Deteriorating weather
• Nighttime and fatigue can also bring on early onset of hypoxia

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By continuing the flight you added the following links:

• Lowering ceiling and possibility of inadvertently entering VMC conditions
• Possibility of being lost (VOR signal and DG precess with a bouncing mag compass)
• Undocumented procedure (nonstandard altitude with inadequate cloud and obstruction clearance).
• Failure to meet targets (Excessive head winds slowing progress, using considerable more fuel than thought)

The other issues (missing the meeting and additional expenses) will be forgotten in a very short time. But the alternative could have been something much worse. The danger you caused was not just to yourself but also to people on the ground and or people in another aircraft on an IFR flight plan -- possibly a commercial airliner. In aviation, so many of the factors that effect our decisions have nothing to do with airplanes.